Modelling Waves & Swerves

7th - 9th February

WIFI:
    BIDVIS - june2018
    BIDOBS - 8id5ton2016

Readings:
https://stuff2233.club/padlife/p/noc_modelling_and_swerves.readings


December Workgroup Notes:
https://stuff2233.club/padlife/p/noc_modelling_and_swerves


Proposed Working this weekend:
Friday

Saturday:
    FVCOM & Doodson Lege comparisons
13:00 LUNCH
14.00
evelyn fox keller's text

Critique of visualisation in the library

19:00 DINNER
Full moon Ritual

Sunday:
10:30
image of objectivity Daston

13:00 LUNCH
Questions from previous session :
After reading the chaper of Karen Barad's [Meeting the universe halfway / Intra-actions matter], and looking at FVCOM model and its mechanical-conceptual correspondances to the Doodson tidal prediction machine, what do scientists observe when they work with a marine model? Is it an apparatus, or phenomena?
    
The question of economies of imagination, and material-computation constraints (literally: energy useage) came up a few times, leading to the question:
* What can you describe as being imaginative? What and whose imaginations are affordable and computable? 

* Thinking about the ethics of data capture, not just the model itself but the project as a whole, what relation does it have to past and contemporary forms of colonialism?
And in how much do models occupy the imagination in general, and how much visualizations determine the models and imagination.

* Are data models one of the main tools for exploitation? And how much data collection and processing power do they require? ( see microsoft's partnerships with oil companies, hosted on the cloud. )

As the output, the model produces a bunch of files which we decide to visualise one or another way.
* what is the affective way of moving from the model to audience? (i.e. scary red) 
* What is the model's audience anyway? Is it other scientists, policy makers, activists, public opinion? Are there visualizations that are meaningful for everyone?

* We came to the notion that we might think of different formations of "truth" that include uncertainty within them. This point arose from speaking about the attack that climate scientists can expect, from leaving out of the data some data points, however political levarage and competition prevents uncertainty from being allowed. We were wondering if it might be more useful to think in a qualitative spectrum of truth or untruth.

--

current
circulation
salinity
turbidity
clorophille


ocean model similar to metereological model..?
ocean forecast for the next fifteen years
prediction and changes, for example extracting energy from tidal movements..

coastal observationist

**data work?
same in oostende slowly sharing the datasets..
reproducing the results..

the hardcore observationist   cliche
explorer Glaciology

astronomists more collaborative, sharing massive amounts of dat a

equifinality

construction of time machines such as the IRC
communication tool built by workers for worker erests

oceanographic community is moving away from proprietary software
moving into python
all code is for tran

data work is done with propriatery software for robust databases
oracle sql server
scientists work on 5/10 yr projects
data archivists - want to keep data forever

robustness of the proprietary 
is it about who you share data with that influences the type of software?
noc's doesnt work in the cloud yet, it might in the future

--

Saturday Morning:


jo: request from insurance company to prove that it is a freak wave
freak waves!
big waves that stick out of the predictions and the wave model, and come from unknown sources.
not really measurable, more through subjective observations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_wave
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draupner_wave


http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513660/1/NOC_R%26C_56.pdf Page 56 has the description for the constituents in the Bidston Doodson machine and https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/harcon.html?id=9410170 has the definition of each constituent
https://www.tide-and-time.uk/tide-predicting-machines has a video describing how the tidal prediction is done wih the Doodson machine


legal implication of sea level rise
EEZ economic exclusive zone , in http://www.marineregions.org/eezsearch.php you can have a visual overview of the different maritime boundaries
border at sea belongs to country
last one is based on continental shelf
 >> https://stuff2233.club/~dick/na/c/sammler2019-article.pdf
 
 
 Silly video on ownership of the seas:
     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypMCK7NcbxU&list=PLfxy4_sBQdxy3A2lvl-y3qWTeJEbC_QCp&index=7&t=0s
     nice little introduction to some of the present issues with "sea ownership" around china

countries in the world need to agree UN 
cyprus turkey completely uncertain
argentia and the falklands
china and japan
territorial claims to ocean
- https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm

ridge with rare metals under the ocean
laying claim to exploit resources

you see data visualisations 


dreadful visualizations
There are examples of scientific organisations collaborating with artists to create visualisations for their data, e.g. https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/data-as-art/
other examples are climate stripes, or even the work from the AllAtlanticOcean initiative https://allatlanticoceanresearch.eu/home
http://www.skyemoret.com/Antarctica-a-Chromatic-Paradox

fvcom runs a model generates a set of output files and to visualise them, matlab then is doing the processing to generate the visualisations of the output
julia programming language for churning data , it's more flexi b le than FORTRAN and has data vis in its core library

how many woman hours does your computer take to process?
how long is the doodson paper of a year of coastline?


referring to the total ocean models set:
    if DL was existing today, it would be in the global tidal model
but Doodson lege would only one point of the global tidal model
"local tidal model"
GTM uses the same constituents as the Doodson machine to predict the global tide. The background calculations are the same.

coast line = solving equation - continuous approach
types of logic whihc you would approach different types of the ocean
what are the types of logic that each produces? i.e. is the middle of the ocean less rational

Different approach if you're looking at the global ocean or coastal seas

There is a micro-tidal (coastal) model and a macro-tidal (global) model.  They are not compatible.  Coastal models are based on a continuous approach based on an equation, while global models are discontinuou, based on a function similar to the old machine, which is calculated for each spatial coordinate.  This is similar to micro-economics and macro-economics, where the two are not compatible and simply answer different questions.  A human going to a particular place on the coast will experience a different tide than what is in the macro-tidal (global) model.  Probably there is a connection to Barad's problematic of quantum physics, which is discrete (discontinuous), but cannot necessarily account for our everyday experience.  The idea of "local knowledge" is interesting here, because the global model cannot yield locally interesting information, but the local model cannot account for the whole.  However, it seems that the macro-tidal model is the first input for the micro-tidal model.

Q: the flow diagram represents massive amount of data, interconnected. 
if there is a problem with one tiny bit of data, dos it mess up the total output?
A: no - it has to be 'good enough' 

there is a hierarchy of knowledge required, the model needs to start from somewhere, some of the model components provide the initial conditions (e.g. Global Tidal Model)
time one

where is the water?  what does the water do? 
first is the inert stuff of water

boundary is found, first
then the middle is generated from boundary properties

Questions:
    1. Navigation
    2. Local knowledge
    3. Visualisation of change over time

Idea: Weaving the length of the high tide and the low tide at a specific place, connecting the loom directly to the tidal prediction machine.
Lizzy's weaving teacher

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

In the model, are there probablistic elements and mechanistic elements?
A: M ost are mechanistic !
A: But turbulence is a problem.  T urbulence cannot be solved by any equation . It is one of the millenial mathematical challenges. W e don ' t understand it well enough , and it is a big part of the picture.  Is the "turbulence coefficient" similar to a degree of error?  Hmmm..  At least in the scales that we work, we know enough.  We just add a pinch of turbulence into the model, see how it works, and compare with observations. (This is the cybernetic feedback loop!)

Waves Are also used to make predictions of "risk" along the coast. 

http://www.channelcoast.org/ccoresources/sweep/
The Link above Shows predictions Of wave height, period and direction for estimates of "risk" to the south west UK coast. They made daily predictions of wave "overtopping" waves breaking over structure (such as sea walls)

Can we compare the way that the model is working, to painting of a landscape?
O n ly abstraction 
Attempting to solve reality 
Constructivist ; )

For Maxigas' workshop in March, thinking about this problem:
make a graph which is static
when people get time series data
it is more difficult to "analyze it", to read the graph.. 
so maybe make the time series static, that it can be observed.
analizing the evidence in visual way is problematic with a nimation
montage doesnt work with animation
https://photos.app.goo.gl/EAVNzro4FNxmtEkB9



jo - a good visualization should be straight forward to understand
2 reasons for data viz - to present the data or to explore the data
so either you are optimizing for an answer to a question , or instead you are  making it possible to make more questions

Is there a restrictive view of a dimension?
If red is small change & blue is big change, then its possible to visualise two dimensions in time 
"edges"
would people understand changes or velocity of changes?
Typhoons - have timestamps and trajectories , so change in time is also visualised.
different moments of analyzing or presenting..

## Harmonic analysis of tides: Consitutents

We are making sense of the 42 consituents of the Doodson-Lege machine in terms of contemporary oceanographic practice:

* doodson lege has 42 constituents
* Sa solar annual constituent
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide#Laplace 's_tidal_equations
* https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/harmonic.html
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/images/harmonic.gif

### Constituents

* omega = how large the wave u
* 

adding up all of the constituents 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_tides

In a small period of time the larger cycles are not so important, so you probably don't take much notice of it, unless it's specifically relevant to the point in the cycle you're in
So for example, if M2 is 2 metres, the larger one can be 10cm.
But it still might be significant if you're looking at a longer period of time. There are "tides of the century".

In a different locality there can be different variables that are more or less important. e.g. in the uk tides are the most important, but in the meditteranean it may be the wind.

18.6 year nodal cycle
polipces gathering related deaths and food consumption runs along these 18.6 year cycle

Sum of waves = additive synthesis!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additive_synthesis

MATLAB
retrieval system

Reading Evelyn Fox Keller
https://stuff2233.club/~dick/na/c/keller.pdf

--
guide the future course of the science

study or personell traininig > such as soldiers f.ex in ww2

simulation not exclusively computer simulation, but that the main meaning of its usage.


theoretical model experiementation

analogue simulation --> Doodson-Légé Tide Predicting Machine? maybe not, an analogue model would be a tank with waves
"new computer simulations"--> FVCOM
new syntax is theoretical model experimentation
analogue analogies, pullies for gravity, wind tunnels for winds..

doodson is maybe already after the shift, because a mathematical equation?
netherlands is nowhere land?

before differential equation was the tool for abstract calculation?
differential equation for example: change in space divided by change in space equal to velocity. 
ocean model solves differential equations.

epistemiology - how to know the world? 
ontology - how the world exist?

methodology of interviews: your epistemology is the way to know the world is to ask questions of another and from the answers, you know the world

three stages of simulation as new framework:
    1 euqation difficult to solve
    2 extract from simulation of 'idealized particles' features that you can build a theory on
    3 building up a model that allows for a theory to come about, so model and theory start to be the same thing?

monte carlo simulation
works with forking paths, multiple different simulations, then look at the final results and take what is the most likely outcome to happen?

is simulation of a tidal event an experiment? yes!
experiment (in theory)

ulam is a mathematician, so for him the experiment is different that experiment for a physicist.
los alamos was a specific time in ww2, with us industrial military academic complex where the interdisciplinarity was pushed..

meteorological model.. montecarlo methodology..
generate a lot of possible outcomes of the model, and each of the percentiles of chance of rain stands for one computer simulation that was run. So if its 20% chance of rain, that was 20/100 simlutaions which said it would rain given their conditions
Pickering talks about "tuning".. machine does not produce the wanted resuts, then machine is tuned until the scientist hear the right sound.
tuning the ocean model. 

some observation in ocean are complex.. circulation happens very quickly ( couple of days ) so difficult to observe in the ocean. you need to design an experiment for that.
secondary circulation fields
you can build a model and tune it until you simulate those circulations.. but it's not to create an expected result, it's in general as a working element, that than later can be checked ahainst actual observation..

what is observable and at which scale is also influencing what can be modelled.. ( ie turbulence ) 

train / test split and cross validation - splitting the data set into training and testing portions.

the discovery of the ozone hole was a result of such serendipity.. some master student looking at data sets not focusing on it particularly.

experiments in theory + experiments in modelling
how much did they change the tidal theory while building the tidal prediction machine.

instead of testing a theory by running the simulation, an approximate theory now is generated by runing the model 

computer time rates and costs https://www.archer.ac.uk/access/au-calculator/
day on a ship = 30k per day - this is only the start. Instruments, 
a small coastal ship with three people is 10k a day..
self justifying systems - it costs a lot per day to run, but we need to run at 100% otherwise they shut it down
60's operating costs for experminental ship voyages 2,5million dollars per year

as you move further into the ocean, you move into a realm where more general truths hold, because there's less of the micro that you have to model for, like the way the waves hit the coast.

https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/mlc-downloads/downloads/submissions/57773/versions/5/previews/cmocean/html/cmocean.png

Sunday


We read "Mr. Palomar" from Italo Calvino (translated by William Weaver). It is about a man looking at the sea.

"for contemplation you need the right temprament, the right mood and the right combination of exterior circumstances"
middle of the ocean oceanography is more abstract
more than being hungry, being modern is the problem
contemplation one of the positions towards the world that begins science

statistics is invented for measuring and working with the 

maybe this text is nice for discussing epistemological violence?
in slicing the world he is doing violence to the world but we see the violence enacted back on him too

Are all the sciences violent by definition?
are youshaping the phenomena if you make a cut to measure something? (Barad's text)
If you make a cut it needs to be made in a responsible way, if you recognise that you make it by choce, it would change the history of epistemological violence in sciences

To discuss it in terms of violence it raises the responsability, just because you take recognise it doesn't make it less violent, but maybe ethically coherent
the agential cut might not remove violence as such but deal with it in an ethically coherent way..

there is an intentionallity within science in the way that there is a proposal (method) on how to be intentional

systematicall y look at the waves (science) 

science is an intentional intentionality, there is always a violence involved in intention operation

Are Mr. Palomar's observations violent? ( A re thought experiments violent?)
A n accidental discovery (like through serendipity) isn't violent. 
I f it was already chopped up, and you perform science, is it violent then?

I n order to come across something you are not expecting, you need to be in a con tem plative state , it wouldn't be violent because you had no intention
have an awareness of whats around you

Is violence linked to intentionallity and responsability or does it exist on its own?

what's not dicussed in the arts is the violence of imagination

The violence of Imagination is not so much discussed in the arts?  Using up a lot of energies and time and attention.  Maybe it is an irresponsibility
It is a commitment to some kind of freedom, that is also a commitment to disregard to other things .
surfer/scientist/artist - playing, or ways of playing - is the violence in the things that you leave out?
Have you ever felt disturbed by something you've created that you didn't want to release it to the outside world?

We read Druker:
Graphesis: Visual forms of knowledge production:

Early visual representations
Imply process and change rather than showing it

graphical representations only possible with
simultaneous coordination of information across distances?
What is simultaneous in this instance? with what technology (GMT & telegraph)

"emergent behaviours" - small scale characteristics which produce behaviours over larger times/areas

What is a chaotic phenomena? 
Deterministic or not? Weather is deterministic or not?

Wiki aside:
"Determinism is the philosophical belief that all events are determined completely by previously existing causes."
"Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary theory stating that, within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnectedness, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals, and self-organization."

T agging/using animals as instruments, and that changing the animals behaviour. In order to measure, for example, temperature or wind speed.
W hat is an observer-independent measure?

What is realism? The assumption that a world ("reality") exists independently of the observer, and the observer is equipped to produce knowledge that corresponds to that world.

M aybe judgemental or too simplicistic in flattening the work of scientists with the look at the world of realists !


Figure 4 in Drucker
* I s this a helpful graph or not? Useful in that it reveals a process of publication and non-individual authorship, processes of publishing , etc .
 * Non-useful in that it doesn't have a key (!), but also the question of whet h er it answers the same question? Some scepticism on this.
 * What graphs are based on the same data?
 * How subjective is it when plotting this?
 * H uge degree of hubris - putting yourself as scientist, claim the responsibility to funnel the information
 * 'Trust me when I quantify my errors for you'... we do that becasue there is no sensible alternative .
 * If you try to be honest and put all the information out there, you never publish (publish or perish) .
 * Connection to the meme discussion last night (looking at "oceanographic memes"): people can read and interpret them, reason about their intentions and origins.  A visual literacy has developed around memes which shows some diffused involvement with image and culture making and interpreting, so that there might be other communication pathways available then the design-simplicity of the climate stripes.
* The idea that ideas want to self-replicate - 'meme' comes from this (Dawkin et al) 30 years ago

graphs should be clear and you should have to read as little of the text at the bottom as possible
science generates facts
we can hope that science generates knowledge, facts that can be used in any way 
also for propoganda

dont have to decide on one strategy
for me at some point there is an 'uncanny valley' effect
if there was a layered access  - where the methodology was explained

infographics are an intensification of these probems, cos they are visualizations that act without direct reference to the science, so that the choices in making the visualization risk to disappear even more..

if you work into it the image of the scientist - ethics and choices in the process


LUNCH FOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD

For next worksession:


- play with / look into visualizations:
    search interesting color schemes
    think of possible different ways to deal with borders and boundaries
    make visibile the uncertainties in the map..
    include the labor processes needed for a visualization into the visualization itself

- maybe take a dataset to play with together?:
    Michela could send her datasets plus article that describes methodology and findings, which would give us some idea of the decision taking.
    Would it be possible for Chris to find/send some raw data with a comment on what we see in it from one instrument (Chris - do you work with CTD, or something else?)

- H ow to make visible and comment on the scientific decisions , the chopping and the epistemological processes that happen  at the different steps   ( observation, modelling, visualization, datamanagement ) ?
- W hat does it look like if, e ither as a thought experim e nt, or as an actal absurd proposal , we follow all of these different steps and discuss these choices together and take seriously the response-ablity in each of these?
( for example taking barad's description of phenomena into account in the observation, or using a "humanistic approach" to the visualization of an ocean model)
- What are the differing epistemological and ontological propositions of each dataset model? For example - it was suggested that the ocean model works with a greater logic of abstraction than coastal models, because it makes bigger generalizations between isometric grid-located observation points.

possible software to start with the datasets:
https://odv.awi.de/software/download/   - t his is easy to download (Linux, OSX, Windows) and to load a .nc file into .
freesoftware library for python, more annoying to install: pyfvcom https://pypi.org/project/PyFVCOM/

Provisionary schedule:


Friday 15th  (e vening )
- Recap

Saturday 16th
Day :
- Work with the visualisations together
- Reading
Evening :
- Radio show on Domes FM!

Sunday 17th ( morning ):
- some light readings , future plans...